August 17, 2026 – Climate Change Could Redraw California Wine Country

Europe and California are facing unprecedented early harvests driven by extreme heat, with Champagne on track for its earliest start since 1822. Meanwhile, a light 2026 crop offers potential market balance, and new climate modeling suggests the future of California wine could shift north to Mendocino.

Table of Contents

In Episode 109 of This Week Uncorked, host Brett Martin breaks down an unprecedented start to the 2026 harvest season. Prolonged heatwaves are forcing historical early picks across Europe and California, with Champagne potentially shattering a two-century-old record and Central Coast growers picking sparkling Pinot Noir as early as late June. While heat and drought are shrinking crop yields statewide—offering a silver lining for a market struggling with oversupply—long-term projections reveal a shifting landscape. New climate research points to Mendocino and Monterey as the promising future hotspots for California viticulture as historic regions navigate extreme weather challenges.

Wine News Round-Up

Champagne on Course for Earliest Harvest Start Date Ever

Patrick Schmitt, writing for The Drinks Business, reports that Champagne is set to begin picking on 15 August, with warmer sites potentially starting five days sooner. Louis Roederer cellar master Jean-Baptiste Lécaillon confirmed the official date to db and singled out Montgueux, a chalk hill about 10 kilometers west of Troyes in the Aube sometimes called the Montrachet of Champagne, as a site that could go early. If Montgueux picks on 10 August, it will be the earliest harvest on record in the region. 

From the article:

Should picking begin on 10 August in Montgueux, that would mark the earliest harvesting on record in Champagne, with Lécaillon noting that some had started bringing in grapes as early as 13 August in 2020, following an extremely hot summer – although the official start date that year was four days later.

The earliest official start to harvesting in Champagne on record is 2020, when picking began on 17 August. Next earliest is 2003, on 18 August – itself the first August start since 1822, when picking began on 20 August.

Other August harvests include 2007, 2011 (19 August) and 2018 (20 August), while last year – another hot vintage – was officially begun on 20 August, although Montgueux was granted a derogation to begin on 19 August.

French Heatwave to Cut Champagne Yields by 10%

James Bayley, also for The Drinks Business, reports that France’s prolonged summer heat and drought are shrinking grape development across Burgundy, Bordeaux and Champagne, with Champagne growers forecasting a crop around 10 percent smaller than last year. Laurent Delaunay, chairman of Burgundy’s BIVB, said growers can “see the potential melting away in the sun,” and that the main worry is water. 

From the article:

In Burgundy and Bordeaux, where temperatures have been even higher, producers say it remains too early to quantify losses precisely but expect output to fall significantly.

While winemakers do not necessarily anticipate lower quality, prolonged heat and drought are increasing sugar accumulation in grapes, potentially affecting alcohol levels and flavour profiles.

Harvesting is also expected to begin unusually early elsewhere, with Bordeaux’s Crémant producers likely to start picking during the first week of August, while Burgundy’s harvest is expected to commence around 20 August.

As California Harvest Begins, Crop is Looking Light

Sarah Brown, writing for Wine Business, reports that record-breaking spring temperatures pushed budbreak weeks ahead of average in California, and that some Central Coast growers have already begun the 2026 sparkling harvest. Anthony Bozzano of Bozzano and Company confirmed a local winery picked Santa Rita Hills Pinot Noir for its sparkling program on June 30, arguably the earliest start in living memory. Other Central Coast vineyards are running three to four weeks ahead. The bigger story is size. Between shatter, reduced cluster sizes, vine removals and mothballing, growers and brokers statewide agree 2026 will be a small crop. 

From the article:

Some growers in Paso Robles have told Bozzano that their Cabernet Sauvignon is looking to come in under two tons per acre and he has heard similarly low estimates for Cab growers in Napa. Others estimate their crop will be half its average tonnage.

But there is something of an upside to an especially small harvest this season

“While it’s a challenge for growers (especially those with contracts) to have a light harvest when market pricing is down, it will likely help push the market closer to “balance” if we have less surplus this year,” said Bozzano.

Climate Change Could Redraw California Wine Country Maps

Quinn Welsch, writing for Courthouse News Service, covers a study published in Frontiers in Climate that models how climate change could reshape where California wine gets made. Researchers mapped current and future climate suitability for grape cultivation across nearly 400 locations, mostly on the North Coast and Central Coast, using a 4-kilometer grid, two emissions scenarios, and three time periods: a 1976 to 2005 baseline, midcentury, and late century. The headline finding is that suitability in the historic regions, Napa, Sonoma, San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara, is likely to decline under a worst-case scenario, while Mendocino and Monterey counties emerge as the standouts. 

From the article:

“Our findings reveal that the outlook for Mendocino and Monterey is uniquely promising because of a dual trend,” study co-author Yusuke Hiraga of Tohoku University in Sendai, Japan, said in a statement. “They are projected to experience both increasing climatic suitability for wine-growing and a decrease in extreme fire-weather days. This combination makes these areas stand out as comparatively favorable expansion zones, distinct from many other regions with either rising suitability alongside increased wildfire weather or declining suitability.”

Wine & Winery of the Week

Wrath Wines – Soledad, CA

It’s not every day that you learn about a winery that’s owned by a scientist, let alone a skilled archeologist, so you can imagine how impressed we were when we learned that Wrath was indeed owned by archeologist Michael Thomas and his mother Barbara. 

Michael purchased Wrath from his stepfather in 2007, but that didn’t stop him from keeping his day job. He continues to manage digs sites in Italy and was even involved in excavating sites near Pompeii’s Mount Vesuvius and Etruscan sites near Florence.  

Otu Estate Pinot Noir 2020 – Awatere Valley, NZ

In the glass, the 2020 Otu Estate Pinot Noir is a pale purple with bright clarity. When examining the nose of this wine, the first thing that jumps out at you is a wave of intense smoke and cedar. More traditional notes of black cherry and plum follow. 

Similar to the nose, the palate is pretty rustic and wild but not in a way that feels balanced. We encountered a sort of earthy-mineral-like gravel, more cedar and smoke, and the unexpected addition of olive. Our overall impression of this New Zealand Pinot Noir was that it was overly thin and not very balanced. It almost had a “green” quality to it that doesn’t really jive with the tasting notes on the brand’s website that claim luscious red fruit and an opulent palate. 

Restaurant of the Week

SingleThread – Healdsburg, CA

SingleThread is an impressive restaurant. The food is beautiful, the service impeccable, and the setting inviting. Chef Kyle Connaughton’s commitment to seasonal, farm-driven cuisine is evident in every dish, and the entire experience feels thoughtful and intentional.

But here’s the thing: at $2500 per couple, you’re paying for more than just food—you’re paying for a story, an experience, and a name. And while we enjoyed the meal, it didn’t quite live up to the price tag. 

Corkage Fee is $150 per Bottle/ Max 2/ One Fee waived for 750ml Bottle Purchase

Corkage of the Week

Tommy’s Beverly Hills

Corkage Fee: $45 Per Bottle / Max 2
Beverly Hills, CA
4.4 Stars with over 53+ Reviews
Nestled along North Canon Drive beside the serene Beverly Canon Gardens, the space pairs classic French charm with California ease. High ceilings framed with gold crown molding, soft lighting, intricate tiling, and curated artwork create a refined ambiance, while the outdoor terrace invites guests to linger and people-watch in true Beverly Hills fashion.